Is Lithuania safe? What are the Baltics and will Russia invade any of it?

OK, I understand today’s topic is a little dark. Or at least a little outside of the normal range for our blog. I wanted to personally address a growing sense of unease I’ve felt about mainstream media reporting on the war in Ukraine though.

Lately, it’s really escalated, with a huge amount of white noise surrounding a couple of stray (unarmed) drones that entered Polish airspace a month or two ago, during the annual military exercises in Belarus.

Of course, in the case of the odd solo Russian fighter jet, doing a flypast in Estonia, it’s pretty hard to ignore the origin, or the provocation.

Often though, anecdotally, some of these “drone attacks”, or incursions into local territory in and around airports, have ended up being attributed to local enthusiasts (morons), playing with their toys a bit too close to sensitive areas.

Normally these things wouldn’t get noticed, and certainly not reported on CNN, but with a 24-hour news cycle that needs feeding, and heightened sensitivity around European airspace at the moment (for good reason), it seems a few lazy “journalists” (often having never been to the region) are voicing opinions about local safety, NATO readiness, or the origin of the component parts right down to the last microchip. Nothing new there.

What I take exception to though, is the impact this white noise, and the mirror of ill-informed opinions, can have, by the nature of its volume, on hard-working, peace-loving, global citizens everywhere.

I think it’s more likely that Putin was extracting the Michael (taking the Mickey), or that the highly technical, precise engineering of the cut-price Iranian drones he uses went horribly wrong during military exercises, than that they are planning a full-scale invasion of Europe. Of course, that’s my uneducated view. I only live here with my young family and have never felt safer (though that’s not saying much, before this I had a place in Bath and London, UK – which really is a bloody war zone).

What most of you probably aren’t aware of either though, is that every year in September, Russia, and what few allies they have left, play war games in Belarus.

They’ve done it for many years, and this year was no exception. Every year it gets one or two media mentions locally, and the global community ignores it completely. I guess everyone was sick of hearing about Gaza this time, or someone was finding ways to keep the Ukrainian conflict in our minds, but there was wall-to-wall coverage of the “military buildup” around the world, and for the first time since the conflict began, I actually got a couple of emails from clients asking if we were OK, and if things were safe. To prove my point, you can see a couple of links to previous exercises below.

Read more at https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/1839871/baltarusijoje-vyksta-bendros-su-rusija-taktines-karines-pratybos

Read more at https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/2073686/nato-rengs-didziausias-karines-pratybas-nuo-saltojo-karo-pabaigos-dalyvaus-41-tukst-kariu

I’m currently sitting on level 32 of the tallest building in the Baltic region. I have a wife and five lovely children, all of whom enjoy spending time here in Vilnius, Lithuania, not a 40-minute drive from the Belarusian border. Now, being over 6 foot tall and 5 foot wide, you might think that by perching myself at the top of the tallest building in the Baltics, I had a death wish. On the contrary, dear reader, what I think is insane, is anyone that thinks Shootin’ Putin (I just made that up!), having been bogged down in mud for the last three years in the arse-end of Ukraine, is about to invade any NATO member state, let alone all of them – especially one that got rid of the Russians 30 years ago by holding hands and singing a song! (See “Baltic Chain” on Google).

The resilience of the Lithuanians through the Russian occupation, and indeed the entire Baltic region, means that there is no one better qualified to give an opinion on the likelihood of an imminent Russian invasion than a local. And I’ve not found one wearing body armour at lunch, or panic-buying loo paper yet.

The startup and tech sector is still booming, the economy is pumping, the streets are paved with Rolls-Royce and Lamborghini four-wheel-drives, and the feeling on the street, in my opinion anyway, and perhaps a little cynically, is that war has never been so damn good for business.

It’s one of the reasons international investors, expats, and gold diggers are choosing Lithuania and the Baltics as their new base. I’m proud to say that our wee team here, at Baltic Capital Partners, helps them with the fastest, smoothest and cheapest path in — we’re talking full European residency in under four weeks for qualifying applicants.

House prices in the capital have doubled in the last five years. Unemployment is virtually zero, there isn’t so much as a cigarette butt in the streets, the parks are beautifully maintained, and the school children all speak at least three languages (English being, of course, one of them).

I was in Estonia less than a month ago, less than an hour by train from Narva, on the Russian border. I enjoyed a lovely medieval feast in a 600-year-old town hall, caught up with some friends, and sipped champagne on the top floor of the Swiss Hotel while enjoying a stunning view of the Baltic Sea. Again, not a trembling local in sight.

All of this reminds me, and brace yourself for this, you can’t believe everything you read! (And yes, I see the irony that I am expecting you to read this).

At least listen to people on the ground, in the streets, not sat in New York scaring people half to death on CNN about the end of the world, in order to sell combat hats from their uncle’s new factory in Poland. (What is Hunter Biden up to now in Ukraine anyway?).

This whole thing takes me back to a time I was in Zambia, watching a BBC report on a local “uprising” after a presidential election.

There was a five-second clip of very angry Africans, jumping up and down and waving sticks in front of a pile of burning rubbish on repeat, so of course I thought I’d better go and investigate, given I was staying at a compound less than a block away from where the protests were happening. I’d never actually participated in live news before, and I thought the folks back home would get a kick out of seeing the only white face in the crowd.

Imagine my disappointment when I arrived on the scene to find no more than about 15 guys, wondering what to do next. And the fire was nearly out, so there went the plan B BBQ as well.

Now, of course, there are some genuinely bad things happening in the world. Gaza is a bloody shambles (though I’m not qualified to comment on that, as I’ve never been there – a view I wish more journalists would take).

Not to mention the genuinely awful things that happened in the first stages of the invasion of Ukraine, and in many cases continue to this day.

But let’s not get too excited, or “carried away”, as me ol’ Nan used to say.

Staring out of my window on this beautiful sunny day, contemplating whether I’m going French or Lithuanian for lunch, I did suddenly feel compelled to put this out into the atmosphere somewhere and hope to God someone reads it and deploys a little common sense. Plus, experience has shown me it’s always better to do these things before lunch, especially on a Friday.

So, don’t let mainstream media convince you that Europe is about to be swallowed by volcanic ash, the tanks are soon to roll into Poland, or that 70–80% tax rates in Australia are a good idea. Let alone a death tax in the UK… but that’s a rant for another day. Make up your own mind, and ideally, do it with some local knowledge. I did. And I currently pay no more than 6%. Which is why I’m living the dream up here, while mates back home are still… well, dreaming.

If you’re still dreaming of a European life too, don’t panic – or believe the war mongers – Baltic Capital Partners can make it happen. Check out our new residency route at mygatewaytoeurope.com and see how easy it is to get EU residency in under four weeks.

For now though, I’m off to buy a drone myself at Euronics – let’s see if I can’t finally get on the BBC.