What Will The Impact of Trump’s Tariff War Be On Lithuania: Opportunities and Threats

Introduction: A New Wave of Trade Tensions

Over the past six months, former US President Donald Trump has reignited a global tariff war, targeting both China and allies in Europe (including the UK). In a bid to put “America First,” the US has imposed sweeping import tariffs – raising average US import taxes from about 2.5% to over 20%, the highest in a century lrt.lt.

China has retaliated in kind, slapping 34% duties on all US goods theguardian.com, and Trump has even threatened 25% tariffs on European cars and other goods lrt.lt. This escalating tit-for-tat has rattled financial markets and drawn warnings from the IMF about “significant risk” to a sluggish global economy theguardian.com.

European leaders have decried the move – “there has never been a winner in a trade war,” warned Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda lrt.lt – and Brussels is preparing retaliatory measures if needed lrt.lt. As a small, open EU economy, Lithuania could be exposed to these global trade disruptions. The country’s government and businesses are bracing for impact, while also eyeing ways to adapt and seize any opportunities emerging from the shake-up.

This report analyzes Lithuania’s economic outlook over the next 3, 6, 12, and 24 months under the tariff war scenario, and identifies key opportunities for local businesses.

We also explores how these changes intersect with Baltic Capital Partners’“Gateway to Europe” program – which fast-tracks EU residency in Lithuania for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) from Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Canada – helping globally mobile investors leverage Lithuania’s strategic position.

Lithuania’s Economic Outlook by Time Horizon

Chart 1: Projected GDP Impact of Trump’s Tariff War on Lithuania

Timeframe	GDP Forecast Without Tariff War	GDP Forecast With Tariff War	Net GDP Impact
3 Months	3.0%	2.8%	-0.2%
6 Months	2.8%	2.3%	-0.5%
12 Months	2.5%	2.0%	-0.5%
24 Months	2.8%	2.5%	-0.3%

Despite its small size, Lithuania’s economy is deeply intertwined with global trade through European supply chains. Trump’s aggressive trade measures are expected to slow Lithuania’s GDP growth by roughly 0.5 percentage points in the near term lrt.lt. Below we break down the outlook across four key time horizons, considering impacts on imports, exports, inflation, trade relations, and GDP.

3-Month Outlook (Immediate Term)

In the immediate term (next 3 months), uncertainty and volatility are the dominant factors. With new tariffs only just taking effect, Lithuanian exporters face rapidly shifting conditions but have little time to adjust. Key anticipated impacts include:

• Exports: Initial shock to export demand, primarily via Europe. Lithuania’s direct exports to the US (about €2 billion annually, ~2.5% of GDP) may not collapse overnight – especially since many fall under exempt categories like energy, timber, and pharmaceuticals lrt.lt. However, indirect effects are already being felt. Germany, Lithuania’s top trading partner, has been flirting with recession, and German manufacturers have started cutting orders from suppliers in Lithuania and other Eastern EU countries in expectation of tougher times lrt.lt. For example, the new Continental auto parts plant in Kaunas may see a slowdown in orders if German car exports falter lrt.lt. In the next quarter, export growth is likely to stall as European industrial output cools.
• Imports and Inflation: On the import side, there is minimal immediate disruption to essential supplies – Lithuania sources most imports from the EU single market, which remains tariff-free internally. However, the cost of imported materials from the US, China, and other affected countries could rise once existing inventories run out. This may put upward pressure on certain input prices, though the effect on consumer inflation in 3 months will be limited. In fact, weaker global demand is starting to push commodity prices down, which counteracts tariff-related price hikes. Analysts suggest the Eurozone could actually see lower overall inflation as the trade war dents growth and commodity costs abnamro.com. In the very short term, Lithuanian consumers might see little change in store prices, while manufacturers monitor rising costs for any imported components.
• Trade Relations: Lithuania will stand firmly with the EU’s collective response. In the immediate term, that means supporting EU negotiations to defuse tensions while preparing proportionate counter-tariffs if the US measures fully hit. Diplomatically, Vilnius will advocate against escalation – Economy Minister Lukas Savickas has urged avoiding any “knee-jerk response” and instead seeking an EU-US understanding lrt.lt. Nonetheless, businesses are being urged to diversify export markets as a precaution lrt.lt, exploring opportunities in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to compensate for any loss of US/EU trade.
• GDP and Business Confidence: Lithuania entered this period with solid economic momentum, but confidence is now shakier. Economists estimate that if the full tariff package is implemented, Lithuania’s annual GDP growth could be trimmed by ~0.5% lrt.lt. Over a single quarter, that impact is modest – possibly a few tenths of a percent – but significant relative to a pre-war growth forecast of around 3%. Early warning signs (like cancelled orders and stock market dips) suggest a mild slowdown is brewing. Businesses may delay investment decisions until there’s clarity on whether this trade war is a temporary bargaining tactic or a longer-term reality lrt.lt. The IMF has cautioned that the tariffs represent a serious risk to the global outlook and urged all sides to reduce uncertainty theguardian.com. In sum, the immediate 3-month horizon for Lithuania is one of heightened uncertainty, slight cooling of growth, but no severe shock yet – essentially holding our breath as we watch how major players react.

6-Month Outlook (Short Term)

By the 6-month mark, the tangible effects of the tariff war will start filtering through more clearly to Lithuania’s economic indicators:

• Exports: If US tariffs persist, Lithuanian exporters will have re-routed some of their sales or adjusted output. Exports to the US will likely dip, but not collapse – importantly, much of Lithuania’s top exports to America (refined petroleum products, medical/pharmaceutical reagents, timber) are so far exempted from US tariffs due to their strategic nature lrt.lt. This offers a partial shield. The bigger concern is Europe: by 6 months, Europe’s broader export engine may sputter if key sectors like German autos and machinery suffer under US tariffs. Lithuania, as a supplier to those sectors, will feel the drag. The Kaunas Continental plant (making electronic components for cars) is a case in point – a drop in German car exports would mean fewer orders and reduced factory utilization in Lithuania lrt.lt. Indeed, economists warn that through such supply chain links, the tariff war could save up to 0.5% off Lithuania’s GDP via the industrial sector lrt.lt. On a positive note, some trade diversion could soften the blow: if US-China tariffs remain higher than US-EU tariffs, European goods might still gain market share in America, helping certain Lithuanian firms. For example, a Lithuanian furniture exporter might find it easier to compete in the US if Chinese furniture faces steep tariffs (assuming EU producers aren’t equally targeted). Likewise, China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods could open opportunities for EU agri-food exports to China – Lithuanian dairy, grain, or meat producers might increase sales to China, replacing US suppliers bruegel.org. These effects will start to materialize by the 6-month horizon.
• Imports and Inflation: By now, any direct price impact of tariffs will be visible. Lithuania could see slightly higher costs on imported American goods if the EU imposes counter-tariffs (for instance, if Brussels slaps tariffs on iconic US products like bourbon or motorcycles in retaliation, those items become pricier in Europe). More significantly, Europe’s market will be awash in global goods seeking buyers, as the US market contracts. The head of Lithuania’s Confederation of Industrialists notes that “the European market will be flooded with cheaper goods from other countries” that can’t sell into the US lrt.lt. This means Lithuanian consumers and companies might find bargain prices on imports from Asia and elsewhere, keeping inflation low. Indeed, analysts expect Eurozone inflation to trend lower due to weaker demand – potentially prompting the ECB to consider interest rate cuts to support the economy abnamro.com. Lower borrowing costs would be a silver lining for Lithuanian businesses, reducing financing costs for expansion or for government stimulus programs. Overall, by the 6-month mark Lithuania likely experiences stable or even easing inflation, with any tariff-induced price rises offset by cheaper world commodities and intense competition in the EU market.
• Trade Relations and Policy Response: Six months in, the initial shock is giving way to strategy. If the tariff war is still ongoing, Europe will have activated support measures. The Lithuanian government has already prepared a €20 million support package for exporters hit by US tariffs lrt.lt. While this is a stopgap (enough to “help companies survive perhaps a month or two” lrt.lt), it signals active intervention. We can expect expanded export credit insurance, tax relief for affected industries, and EU-level assistance (e.g. EU structural funds reallocated to regions hit by trade shocks). Lithuania will also intensify efforts to diversify its trade partnerships – possibly accelerating trade talks and investment ties with fast-growing markets not embroiled in the tariff fight. Notably, China’s outreach to the EU may continue: under pressure from the US, Beijing has shown interest in advancing an EU-China investment agreement bruegel.org. If those talks bear fruit, within 6 months European firms (including Lithuanian ones) might gain improved access or protections in China’s market, partially offsetting lost transatlantic opportunities. On the geopolitical front, Lithuania as an EU and NATO member walks a fine line – staying aligned with the EU stance, while maintaining good will with the US on security matters. Diplomatic efforts may aim to carve out exemptions or remove certain tariffs through negotiation, especially on critical goods (for example, ensuring that Lithuania’s pharmaceutical and biotech exports to the US remain tariff-free given their importance lrt.lt).
• GDP and Outlook: By late 2025 (six months on), forecasts for Lithuania’s economy will likely be downgraded modestly. The consensus might project GDP growth slowing to perhaps ~2% annualized, down from ~2.5–3% expected pre-tariffs (that ~0.5% hit mentioned earlier) lrt.lt. Unemployment could tick up slightly if export-oriented factories reduce shifts, though robust domestic demand (helped by resilient consumer spending and EU funds) should prevent any major labor market deterioration. Importantly, EU fiscal stimulus will be kicking in: Germany, France, and other core countries have unveiled investment in defense and infrastructure to bolster internal demand lrt.lt. Lithuania stands to benefit from this, as part of European supply chains for infrastructure projects and as a recipient of increased NATO-related spending. Swedbank’s chief economist Nerijus Mačiulis notes that these structural measures – e.g. higher defense outlays and new infrastructure in the EU – could add up to 0.5% to Lithuania’s GDP over time lrt.lt, offsetting the trade war drag. In the 6-month horizon, the net outcome for Lithuania might be modest growth continuing, but at a slower pace, with the economy in “wait-and-see” mode as businesses adapt to the new trade landscape.

12-Month Outlook (Medium Term)

Twelve months into the tariff conflict, short-term adjustments harden into longer-term realities. By this point (mid-to-late 2026), Lithuania’s economy will have undergone adaptation to a “new normal” of global trade tensions:

• Exports and Supply Chains: A year in, companies will have more concretely reorganized supply chains and market strategies. We expect Lithuanian exporters to be more diversified geographically than before. For instance, a furniture manufacturer that once relied heavily on German orders might have established new clients in Scandinavia or the Middle East. Agricultural exporters likely pivoted toward alternative markets – an example being Lithuania’s grain producers, who have already demonstrated agility by shifting exports to Africa and the Americas amid global disruptions in recent years millermagazine.com. Such diversification will continue, spurred by both necessity and opportunity. The tariff war’s trade diversion effects should become evident: European firms have been replacing US and Chinese suppliers in each other’s markets. By the one-year mark, some EU products will have captured U.S. market share at China’s expense and vice versa bruegel.org. For Lithuania, this could mean niche wins – e.g. a Lithuanian dairy company might be shipping more cheese to East Asia if China imposed tariffs on U.S. dairy and opened quotas to EU suppliers. Another potential win: EU automotive and machinery parts in the US market. If Chinese-made machine parts are costlier due to tariffs, American importers could turn to European (including Lithuanian) suppliers for certain specialized components. On the flip side, competition within Europe will be fierce – companies from Asia, barred by US tariffs, will aggressively court EU customers. Over the year, Europe has seen cases of “price dumping, as companies struggle to find buyers” in an oversupplied market lrt.lt. Lithuanian firms in sectors like steel, furniture, or textiles may face stiff competition from cheaper Chinese, Turkish, or other imports flooding Europe. Some local manufacturers might consolidate or innovate to survive this pressure, potentially with EU state aid support. Net effect on exports by 12 months: slightly negative but stabilizing – after an initial dip, Lithuanian export volumes should stabilize as new markets and segments compensate for losses. The GDP growth contribution of net exports will likely be near zero or slightly negative, compared to a solid positive contribution pre-trade war.
• Imports and Domestic Market: One year on, Lithuania’s import mix may shift more toward non-US suppliers. If the EU and US have been trading blows for a full year, Lithuanian importers would have re-sourced many goods from within Europe or Asia to avoid tariff costs. For example, Lithuanian companies might import machinery from Japan or Korea instead of the US, if American equipment carries a tariff premium. Consumer goods imports from China and Asia could surge, thanks to Chinese exporters eager to dump excess stock in Europe (especially with the Chinese government compensating exporters for US tariffs for a period lrt.lt). This means Lithuanian shoppers benefit from lower prices and greater supply of electronics, appliances, and other consumer products. Inflation by the 12-month mark is expected to remain subdued. Any initial burst of import price inflation will have been dampened by a year of weak global demand and alternate sourcing. Indeed, the European Commission might even be worrying about too-low inflation if the economic slowdown is pronounced. This environment keeps interest rates low and could prompt the ECB to maintain an accommodative stance (possibly even restarting some quantitative easing), which in turn supports domestic demand. Thus, Lithuanian households might enjoy decent purchasing power, helping domestic consumption offset export weakness. Retail sales and services catering to locals could remain a pillar of growth at the one-year horizon.
• Trade Relations and EU Cohesion: After a year of economic sparring, it’s likely that all sides feel the strain, increasing chances of negotiations. There might be glimmers of a deal in the works between the US and EU/China – but assuming no resolution yet, Europe’s unity will be a defining factor. Over 12 months, the EU will have activated new tools like the Anti-Coercion Instrument (designed to respond to economic blackmail) to strengthen its negotiating hand. Lithuania, having experienced China’s coercion in 2021–22, has been a vocal supporter of tougher EU-wide trade defenses china-briefing.com. We can expect that solidarity to continue, with Lithuania fully aligning with EU retaliatory tariffs or WTO cases if they are pursued. Meanwhile, new trade deals and alliances could emerge: the EU has likely accelerated trade talks with other partners (for example, the ratification of the EU- Mercosur trade agreement or deeper trade cooperation with India) to reduce reliance on the US and Chinese markets. Lithuania stands to benefit from any such deals as an EU member – e.g. easier access to Latin American markets for its exporters. In addition, EU-China relations may have evolved. If the US-China standoff persisted, China might have granted the EU greater market openings (such as removing some joint-venture requirements or tariffs on European goods) bruegel.org. Lithuanian companies in high-tech manufacturing, lasers, or food could exploit those openings to boost exports to China. However, there is caution: Europe is also wary of over-dependence on China, so it walks a tightrope. Lithuania exemplified that caution by prioritizing geopolitical values in its China policy. Over a year, one result of the trade war could be closer EU internal integration – the crisis would have proven the value of the single market and coordination. For Lithuania, this might mean more say in EU trade policy (as unity is critical) and potentially greater EU budget allocations to help affected industries in smaller member states.
• GDP, Investment and Sectoral Shifts: By the 12-month point, Lithuania’s GDP growth rate might be running below its recent trend, but the economy should avoid contraction barring a severe global recession. Suppose pre-war, 2025–2026 growth was forecast around +3% annually; by one year into the war, it could be around +2% (assuming some offsetting factors like EU stimulus). Key sectors to watch: Manufacturing likely took a hit in late 2025 but could start rebounding if firms successfully pivot markets. New investments may also start to bear fruit. It’s during the one-year horizon that we could see initial investments driven by supply-chain reconfiguration. For example, a multinational company might have decided in mid-2025 to establish a new assembly line in Eastern Europe (Lithuania or a neighbor) to serve European customers more reliably – such a facility could be under construction or early operation by mid-2026. Any such investment would be a win for local employment and exports going forward. At the same time, entrepreneurial activity might rise as opportunities emerge from the disruption. Lithuania’s growing tech and startup scene could capture opportunities in fintech and IT services as global firms look for efficient bases in the EU (indeed, fintech giants like Revolut and Robinhood have already chosen Lithuania for their EU operations lrt.lt, a trend likely to continue). By the end of one year, Lithuania’s economy will have rebalanced to rely a bit more on internal EU demand and new markets, a bit less on the US, and will be looking to innovate out of the crunch. Business sentiment might start improving as firms see that they cansurvive and even find niches in the changed trade environment.

24-Month Outlook (Longer Term)

Looking 24 months ahead (into 2027), we must consider two scenarios: one where the tariff war has been resolved or de-escalated, and one where it continues or even intensifies. In either case, some lasting impacts and adjustments for Lithuania will have taken root by year two:

• If the Trade War Eases: By 2027, if negotiations eventually prevailed and tariffs were reduced, Lithuania could experience a relief rally in trade. Exports to the US would bounce back (with pent-up demand for certain Lithuanian goods), and heavily impacted sectors like automotive parts would recover as European manufacturing normalizes. GDP growth would likely accelerate above the subdued war-time pace, possibly returning to near 3% as global trade picks up. Import patterns might partially revert (e.g. Lithuanian importers may re-engage US suppliers if tariffs drop), but critically, the diversification achieved during the conflict would remain an asset. Companies that entered new markets (say, Africa or South America) will keep those ties, providing multiple growth avenues. The Lithuanian economy in this scenario is more globally diversified and resilient than before. Inflation would likely stay moderate – any post-war demand surge could be tempered by the fact that supply chains are now more efficient and spread out (plus technological investments made during the war to cut costs). Hopes of resolution would also strengthen the euro (if it had weakened during the conflict), reducing import prices. Overall, a de-escalation by year two yields a resurgent yet more globally connected Lithuanian economy.
• If the Trade War Persists: Should the tariff war grind on into a second year, its effects might crystallize into a new structural reality. Global trade volumes could shrink further, echoing economist Marius Dubnikovas’s warning that such an “economic war” would “reduce trade volumes, leading to lower company revenues, smaller profits, fewer jobs, and lower wages” worldwide lrt.lt. In this harsher scenario, Lithuania’s growth would be lower than usual – perhaps in the 1–2% range – but not necessarily negative, thanks to adaptive measures. After two years, certain sectors in Lithuania would have adjusted well and even thrive:
  • Logistics and Transit: With Eurasian trade routes shifting, Lithuania’s geographic position as a gateway between Western Europe and the East could be leveraged. By 2027, projects like Rail Baltica (connecting the Baltic states to the European rail network) might be near completion, boosting transit trade. If Chinese and other Asian suppliers send more goods to Europe (since the US is tough to access), Baltic ports and rail lines could see higher volumes, benefiting Lithuanian logistics companies and infrastructure.
  • Manufacturing and Nearshoring: By year two, the trend of “China+1” or rather “China to CEE” for manufacturing would be evident. Numerous European firms, and even some American or Asian firms, may have established operations in Central/ Eastern Europe to serve the EU market efficiently. Lithuania stands to gain investment and jobs from this nearshoring wave. It offers eurozone stability, skilled labor, and lower costs – labor costs in CEE countries are 40–60% lower than in Western Europe ceinterim.com, and shipping from CEE to key markets is significantly faster and cheaper than from East Asia (intra-Europe delivery can take 1–3 days versus 30+ days from China, with shipping costs roughly half of those from China) ceinterim.com ceinterim.com. By 2027, new factories in Lithuania’s free economic zones could be producing everything from automotive electronics to medical devices for EU consumption. This would diversify Lithuania’s industrial base and reduce unemployment in regions that attract these investments.
  • Key Export Sectors: Some of Lithuania’s high-value sectors might see growth thanks to strategic shifts. For example, Lithuania’s laser technology industry (a world-leading niche) could gain more orders as global manufacturing localizes (lasers are used in advanced manufacturing equipment – if Europe invests in its own tech capacity, Lithuanian laser firms benefit). Similarly, life sciences and pharmaceuticals – already a significant sector in Lithuania – could expand if Europe aims to secure medical supply chains internally (a priority after recent crises). Two years of trade tension may push the EU to ensure critical industries (from semiconductors to vaccines) have production within the bloc; Lithuania has been actively courting investments in fintech, biotech, and aerospace, which might flourish under EU initiatives for technological self-reliance.
  • Domestic Economy and EU Support: Through year two, the cumulative impact on GDP would depend on how effectively offsetting measures work. We might see Lithuanian GDP level slightly below the pre-war trend (lost growth from two years of friction), but not drastically so. EU fiscal stimulus – especially increased defense spending – will likely be in full swing. Notably, defense contracts and military infrastructure projects could trickle into Lithuania. Europe’s commitment to collective defense (spurred by both US pressure and regional security concerns) means Lithuania might host new military facilities or maintenance centers, bringing investment and construction activity. Additionally, EU cohesion funds and recovery instruments could be directed to ensure no member state is left behind by the trade turbulence. This could mean targeted funding for the Baltic region, helping upgrade infrastructure (ports, rail, energy grids) which in turn creates jobs and long-term growth capacity.
• Trade Relations Long Term: After two years, if no resolution, the global trading system will likely have split into more regional blocs. Lithuania, firmly in the EU bloc, would deepen its integration with European value chains and potentially with partners like Japan, Canada (through existing FTAs like EPA and CETA), and others in a like-minded network committed to open trade. Relations with the UK (now outside the EU) will also be noteworthy: the UK might align more with the US or pursue its own trade deals. If UK-US ties tightened (e.g. a UK-US trade agreement), Lithuanian businesses could indirectly benefit by partnering with UK firms for transatlantic ventures, but also might face competition from UK exporters in some fields. Conversely, if the UK also suffered from US protectionism (not guaranteed, but possible if disputes arose), that might drive more UK-based entrepreneurs to seek a foothold back in the EU – and Lithuania could be an attractive gateway for them.
• Inflation and Financial Climate: Two years out, a protracted trade war likely results in lower global growth and lower commodity prices than otherwise. Energy prices would probably be subdued (barring other shocks), which for Lithuania – a net energy importer – is beneficial. Lower oil prices reduce transport and production costs, helping both consumers and exporters. The ABN AMRO analysts noted that a trade war could lead to lower fossil fuel prices, cutting costs for energy importers abnamro.com. Thus by 2027, Lithuania could enjoy a stable price environment or even slight deflationary tendencies if demand is soft – though vigorous domestic spending (fueled by EU funds or wage growth) might counteract that. Low interest rates would likely persist, meaning the government and businesses have cheap access to capital. This is an environment where investment in new opportunities is encouraged, as holding cash yields little. In fact, if Europe plays its cards well, it could turn the trade war into an impetus to modernize industries (e.g. adopting new technologies at lower cost – Chinese tech goods like solar panels and batteries might become cheaper if the US’s absence makes China dump them in Europe abnamro.com). Lithuania’s ongoing renewable energy projects (offshore wind in the Baltic Sea, for instance) could become cheaper to implement thanks to lower input costs, aligning with EU green goals.

Bottom Line: By the 24-month mark, Lithuania’s economy will either be recovering strongly (if the trade conflict is resolved) or humming at a slower, but sustainable pace (if the conflict persists). In both scenarios, the country will have leveraged its adaptability: finding new markets, welcoming new investors, and capitalizing on EU solidarity measures. While growth in the worst case might be a bit underwhelming, Lithuania is poised to avoid the worst outcomes of the tariff war through smart reorientation. Crucially, the structure of the economy will have shifted – with greater emphasis on sectors that are winners in the new trade landscape (logistics, localized manufacturing, tech services, etc.), and less exposure to any single foreign market. This bodes well for long-term resilience.

Lithuania’s Economic Outlook

Projected Impact on Lithuania’s GDP due to Tariffs

Timeframe	GDP Forecast Without Tariff War	GDP Forecast With Tariff War	Net GDP Impact
3 Months	3.0%	2.8%	-0.2%
6 Months	2.8%	2.3%	-0.5%
12 Months	2.5%	2.0%	-0.5%
24 Months	2.8%	2.5%	-0.3%

Lithuania’s immediate growth will experience moderate downturns due to reduced exports to Europe and the US. By the end of two years, Lithuania will likely adapt, stabilizing growth around 2.5% annually through market diversification.

Opportunities for Lithuania Amid Shifting Trade Dynamics

Trade wars, while disruptive, inevitably create winners in certain niches even as they create losers. Lithuania is positioning itself to seize opportunities from the reconfiguration of global trade and supply chains. Several key sectors and strategic areas stand out where Lithuania either already has, or can develop, a competitive edge as companies worldwide adjust to the new tariffs and tensions:

A Continental automotive electronics factory in Kaunas, Lithuania. Major manufacturers have invested in Lithuanian production facilities, integrating the country into global supply chains lrt.lt. Trade shifts are likely to bring more such investments as firms seek efficient EU-based hubs.

• Manufacturing & Supply Chain Re-routing: As global companies adopt a “China-plus-one” strategy – adding alternative production sites outside China to mitigate tariff risk – Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has emerged as an attractive option ceinterim.com. Lithuania, with its educated workforce and business-friendly environment, stands to benefit from this trend. We are already seeing interest in its free economic zones (like Kaunas FEZ, home to Continental and other investors). Manufacturing closer to EU customers offers huge advantages: shipping times are cut from weeks to days, and freight costs can be **50% lower than from East Asia】 ceinterim.com. For industries like electronics, automotive parts, machinery, and textiles, Lithuania can be a cost-effective production base within the EU single market. Opportunity: Local suppliers can join new value chains as foreign firms set up assembly lines in Lithuania. Additionally, Lithuanian manufacturers can capture contracts as European companies replace distant suppliers with regional ones. For example, if a German appliance maker stops sourcing casings from China due to tariffs, a Lithuanian metalworking firm could step in as the new supplier. The auto industry is a prime target – with uncertainty around US tariffs on EU cars, big automakers will look to optimize costs; they may outsource more component production to cheaper locales like Lithuania to protect margins. The presence of companies like Continental demonstrates Lithuania’s potential to host high-tech automotive manufacturing, which could expand if firms pivot away from Asia. Government incentives (tax breaks in free zones, investment grants) can amplify this opportunity, attracting a wave of industrial FDI into Lithuania over the next 1–2 years.
• Logistics & Trade Hub Services: With supply chains being redrawn, logistical routes and hubs are being reconfigured globally. Lithuania’s geographic position is advantageous: it sits at the crossroads of the EU, Russia/CIS (to its east), and has access to the Baltic Sea. As some trade shifts away from the trans-Pacific corridor (US-China) toward trans-Eurasian or intra-European routes, Lithuania can market itself as a reliable transit hub. For instance, increased trade between Europe and Asia (excluding the US) could mean higher volumes through the “Middle Corridor” and via Baltic ports. The Port of Klaipėda – already one of the busiest in the Baltic – could gain business handling more Asian cargo destined for European markets. Likewise, rail freight routes from China to Europe (a segment of China’s Belt & Road) might, if political conditions allow, take advantage of Lithuanian rail links to reach Western Europe. Opportunity: Lithuanian logistics firms can expand warehousing, distribution, and freight-forwarding services to accommodate companies seeking to reroute their supply chains. There is also room for investment in infrastructure – e.g. expanding port capacity, logistics parks, and improving customs efficiency – potentially funded by EU grants or public-private partnerships. If the EU prioritizes greater self-sufficiency, it will want smooth internal logistics; Lithuania could see accelerated completion of Rail Baltica and highway projects, effectively knitting it closer to core EU markets. All this bolsters Lithuania’s role as a gateway for goods, not just people. Local businesses in transportation, trucking, and storage will find new clients as trade flows reorient. Over 24 months, we could see a tangible uptick in Lithuania’s transit trade revenues and a rise in jobs in the logistics sector.
• Agriculture & Food Exports: Agricultural trade is often a pawn in tariff wars, and this one is no exception. China’s retaliation to US tariffs included targeting American farm goods, creating openings for other exporters bruegel.org. The EU – including Lithuania’s robust agri-food sector – can benefit. Lithuania produces surplus dairy, grain, and beverages (like beer and spirits) that find markets abroad. Already, when facing unfriendly moves from certain large neighbors, Lithuanian agribusiness has creatively shifted exports to new regions millermagazine.com. With Chinese consumers possibly turning more to European foods (in lieu of American), Lithuanian companies can strive to meet that demand. For example, Lithuania’s dairy producers (who make high-quality cheeses, milk powders, etc.) could increase shipments to Asia where demand is rising. Similarly, if US soybeans and corn are restricted in China or the EU, Lithuanian farmers might see better prices for their crops in alternative markets or could grow different protein crops to fill the gap. On the EU side, if the US imposes tariffs on European foods (wine, cheese, etc.), there may be EU compensation schemes or promotion programs to help producers find other outlets – Lithuania’s food exporters can leverage these to expand their footprint globally. Opportunity: Local agribusinesses can invest in scaling up and meeting the standards of new markets. High net worth investors might find attractive prospects in Lithuania’s farmland or food processing companies, anticipating growth as supply chains shift. Additionally, with food security becoming a concern, investment in food tech and agro-innovation (areas like organic farming, aquaculture, or even biotech like alternative proteins) in Lithuania could pay off, supported by EU innovation funds.
• Energy & Infrastructure Projects: One somewhat unexpected opportunity from the tariff war is the boost to internal investment – especially in energy and infrastructure – within Europe. As noted, the EU is responding to slower trade-driven growth with fiscal stimulus lrt.lt. Germany’s increase in public investment, particularly in infrastructure, and the EU’s collective push for energy independence and green transition (partly a response to geopolitical tensions) mean large projects are on the horizon. Lithuania is already pursuing critical infrastructure: the power grid synchronization with Western Europe, new renewable energy installations, and enhancements to road/rail connectivity. With more EU funding likely being funneled into such projects over the next two years, local construction, engineering, and energy firms stand to gain contracts. For example, EU defense and infrastructure spending could translate into projects like modernizing military bases in the Baltics or building better railways – Lithuanian companies could get slices of these contracts lrt.lt. Moreover, the tariff war’s pressure on China may result in cheaper prices for certain technologies (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries) abnamro.com, allowing Lithuania to implement its green energy plans at lower cost. Opportunity: The confluence of EU support and cheaper inputs is ideal for Lithuania to accelerate national infrastructure upgrades. Local businesses in construction and energy can ramp up capacity. There’s also room for foreign investors (perhaps those seeking EU residency via investment) to co-invest in these projects – for instance, financing a solar farm or a tech park, knowing there’s strong policy backing. The end result is not only economic stimulus but improved productivity and connectivity for Lithuania, boosting long-term growth.
• Technology, Services & Fintech: Beyond goods, the tariff and trade turmoil is prompting a reevaluation of where services and capital are located. High-value services (finance, IT, R&D) tend to flow to stable, rule-of-law jurisdictions in uncertain times. Within Europe, Lithuania has been punching above its weight in attracting fintech companies and digital innovators (sometimes called the “Fintech Hub of the North”). Brexit has already pushed UK fintechs to seek EU bases – Lithuania seized that chance, offering quick licensing and a tech-friendly regulator, which brought in companies like Revolut lrt.lt. Now, with US-China tensions and even US-EU strains, global tech firms might likewise prefer to operate in an environment that is globally connected but neutral and reliable. Lithuania offers that: it’s in the EU (access to 27 countries), uses the euro, and has a strong talent pool especially in IT (thanks to its excellent education system). We can foresee more IT outsourcing and fintech operations relocating or expanding in Lithuania to serve European markets. For example, a Canadian or American software company might set up an EU office in Vilnius to hedge against transatlantic strains and tap into local developers. Likewise, some manufacturing companies might move their design or engineering centers to Lithuania to benefit from lower costs while staying close to European production. Opportunity: The services sector could see a boom – more international companies establishing back-office or R&D centers. This brings high-paying jobs and knowledge transfer. It’s also directly relevant to high net worth individuals: many startup founders or tech investors might choose Lithuania as a base (at least part-time) to oversee these EU operations. Already, the country’s startup visa and e-residency-like initiatives attract entrepreneurs. With the tariff war underscoring the value of an EU foothold, Lithuania can market itself as a cost-effective HQ for globally mobile businesses. The local ecosystem in fintech, cybersecurity, gaming, and lasers provides a community and supply of skilled labor to support new ventures.
• EU Market Cohesion & Investment Climate: Finally, one broad opportunity arises from the increased cohesion within the EU in response to external pressure. Europe has learned that unity is strength when facing economic aggression. This could lead to deeper integration initiatives – for example, completing the Capital Markets Union or Banking Union – which improve the flow of investment across Europe. Lithuania, with its stable credit rating and prudent fiscal policy, could attract more European investment capital in such an environment. Opportunity: Lithuanian companies and startups might find it easier to secure funding from elsewhere in the EU, and valuations could rise as investors view the Baltics as integral parts of the EU market (as opposed to a peripheral risk). Additionally, any moves to harmonize regulations will further reduce barriers for businesses operating across the EU, something a Lithuania-based company can fully leverage. For instance, if the EU simplifies cross-border digital services rules, a tech firm in Lithuania can scale its services EU-wide more readily. In short, a more unified Europe opens opportunities for Baltic businesses to scale up. The tariff war, inadvertently, may be pushing Europe to “get its house in order” economically, which could benefit agile smaller members like Lithuania with an outsized growth potential.

Each of these opportunities can significantly enhance Lithuania’s economic outlook, turning some of the tariff war’s lemons into lemonade. However, capitalizing on them requires proactive effort – businesses must be ready to invest, adapt, and seek new partnerships. This is where Baltic Capital Partners (BCP) and similar facilitators come into play, connecting resources (especially foreign investors) with local opportunity.

Key Opportunities for Lithuanian Businesses

The tariff conflicts, while challenging, also present new opportunities for Lithuanian businesses in several sectors:

Sector	Opportunity	Expected Growth Timeline
Manufacturing & Nearshoring	Relocation of production from Asia to Lithuania.	6-24 months
Logistics & Infrastructure	Development of new EU-Asia trade routes via Lithuania.	12-24 months
Agriculture & Food Exports	Expansion of Lithuanian food exports to Asian markets.	6-12 months
Technology & Fintech	Attraction of fintech and technology companies to Vilnius.	3-24 months
Energy & Infrastructure	Increased EU investment in infrastructure projects.	12-24 months

High Net Worth Individuals and the “Gateway to Europe” Program

Amid these global shifts, high net worth individuals from countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK are increasingly looking for stability, diversification, and new avenues for growth.

Lithuania’s evolving role in Europe presents a compelling case for these internationally mobile investors, entrepreneurs, and even retirees to engage with the country. Baltic Capital Partners, through its “Gateway to Europe” fast-track residency program, is ideally positioned to help such clients gain a foothold in the EU and capitalize on Lithuania’s opportunities. Below, we outline how HNWIs can benefit and how BCP can tailor its offering:

• Strategic EU Access: For investors from outside Europe (or post-Brexit Britons), obtaining EU residency is a golden ticket. It grants freedom of movement across 27 countries, the right to reside in a stable, high-standard-of-living environment, and the ability to do business seamlessly within the vast EU single market. In an era of tariff wars, having a base in the EU is a smart hedge. For example, a Canadian entrepreneur facing a more protectionist US might prefer to shift focus to Europe – by residing in Lithuania, they can easily travel and network across the EU, set up an EU-based company, and enjoy unfettered access to 450 million consumers. Baltic Capital Partners can emphasize this geopolitical hedge: Lithuania as a “Plan B” location that is safe, EU-integrated, yet relatively low-cost and welcoming. Particularly for UK citizens who lost automatic EU rights after Brexit, the Gateway to Europe program can restore their ability to live and do business in Europe, which is especially valuable if EU-US or EU-UK trade frictions make international operations harder.
• Business Opportunities & Entrepreneurship: The shifting trade landscape presents myriad opportunities for entrepreneurs – from setting up manufacturing operations targeting the EU market, to launching service companies filling gaps left by retreating competitors. Lithuania is an excellent launchpad for such ventures. It ranks highly in ease of doing business, has competitive taxes, and a network of free economic zones and startup incubators. Through fast-tracked residency, BCP can help an entrepreneur quickly relocate and start a venture in Lithuania to seize an emerging opportunity (say, a factory to produce a component no longer easily sourced from China, or a trading company to handle new EU-Asia supply routes). Because BCP’s team includes expats and locals who understand the market, they can provide not just paperwork assistance but also local insights and connections – introducing clients to Lithuanian business partners, real estate options, or government programs. For instance, if a British automotive parts maker wants to open a plant in Lithuania to serve EU clients tariff-free, BCP could facilitate their residency and connect them with the Kaunas FEZ administration, speeding up the setup by leveraging local know-how.
• Investment Diversification: HNW individuals often seek to diversify their asset base globally. Lithuania, and the Baltics in general, might be under the radar, but they offer solid returns and growth potential. Real estate is one avenue – Vilnius property prices, for example, are lower than Western European capitals but have shown strong appreciation as the economy grows. An investor worried about frothy markets at home could invest in Baltic real estate or funds and gain EU residency as a bonus. Moreover, as discussed, sectors like infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology are growing in Lithuania. BCP can highlight co-investment opportunities where clients’ capital can fuel Lithuanian projects and in return the clients gain residency and a stake in a growing business. The program welcomes those who “add value to the EU through investment, skill or passion” balticcapitalpartners.com – meaning a wide range of investment forms (from starting a company to buying government bonds or funding a venture fund) might qualify. HNWIs can thus profit from Lithuania’s ascent while meeting residency requirements. Baltic Capital Partners can assist clients in performing due diligence on these opportunities, leveraging their local network to find reliable ventures aligned with the shifts (e.g. a logistics park development or a fintech startup seeking angel investors).
• Tax Efficiency and Treaties: Another practical benefit for individuals relocating to Lithuania is the favorable tax regime and treaties. Lithuania’s tax system is relatively straightforward and offers advantages for certain high-earners or business owners. For example, corporate profit tax can be as low as 5% for small companies under certain conditions, and there are no wealth taxes or inheritance taxes – attractive for retirees or family offices. BCP’s materials even compare tax implications between countries like Australia and Lithuania balticcapitalpartners.com, often finding significant savings for those who establish tax residency in Lithuania. Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs) with countries like Australia and New Zealand ensure that income isn’t taxed twice balticcapitalpartners.com, smoothing the path for clients from those countries. Opportunity: BCP can pitch to financially savvy HNWIs that beyond business opportunities, establishing residency in Lithuania can optimize their global tax exposure. For instance, an Australian business owner who becomes a Lithuanian resident might structure their company’s international operations to benefit from Lithuania’s tax treaties and EU single market access, legitimately reducing tax burdens while expanding in Europe balticcapitalpartners.com. Such dual benefits (economic and lifestyle) make the program a compelling proposition.
• Lifestyle and Stability for Retirees: For retiree investors, the tariff war’s instability might be less about business and more about ensuring their nest egg and lifestyle are secure. Lithuania offers a peaceful, historic European lifestyle at a fraction of the cost of say, London or Sydney. It boasts high-quality healthcare, a low crime rate, and rich cultural heritage – all attractive for retirement. Importantly, being an EU resident allows a retiree to freely travel or live across various European countries. Baltic Capital Partners can tailor the Gateway to Europe program as a retirement plan, highlighting, for example, how a Canadian or Kiwi retiree could spend summers in Lithuania (or elsewhere in Europe) and winters back home, with hassle-free travel. The cost savings (cheaper living costs and possibly lower taxes on retirement income, depending on treaties) can be substantial. And given Lithuania’s growing economy, any investments retirees make locally – perhaps in real estate or local bonds – stand a good chance of yielding solid returns as the country develops further. In short, BCP can market Lithuania as an ideal retirement haven that also doubles as an investment opportunity (a rarity among golden visa programs, which often focus only on the residency and less on the investment upside).
• Targeting Globally Mobile Professionals: Besides entrepreneurs and retirees, there is a class of globally mobile professionals – digital nomads, consultants, remote business owners – who seek a base that offers freedom and connectivity. For them, Lithuania’s combination of excellent internet infrastructure, reasonably priced upscale housing, and easy access to Europe’s major cities (Vilnius to London or Berlin is a 2-3 hour flight) is very appealing. With the trade war prompting companies to adopt more remote work and distributed teams (to mitigate risks), many people can choose where to live. BCP can target these individuals by emphasizing how quick and painless it is to get Lithuanian residency (under 4 weeks in many cases balticcapitalpartners.com), and how welcoming the ecosystem is – there’s a thriving expat community, and English is widely spoken in business. Lithuania even has a digital nomad visa initiative on the horizon, but BCP’s program offers a more permanent solution than a temporary visa. Opportunity: Enrolling more globally mobile professionals not only is good business for BCP, but it benefits Lithuania by bringing in talent and spenders who enrich the economy. These individuals might end up starting new ventures locally or investing in the startup scene, creating a positive feedback loop.

All these opportunities show that HNWIs can gain significantly from Lithuania’s strategic position. They get the insurance policy of EU residency in turbulent times, and a platform to exploit new trade and investment opportunities that the tariff realignments present.

For Baltic Capital Partners, aligning the Gateway to Europe program with these global trends is key. By staying updated on economic shifts (as in this analysis) and continuously networking with local businesses and government, BCP can curate unique value propositions for clients – for example, a “Residency + Investment Bundle” where a client’s funds go into a specific high-potential Lithuanian project (like a factory expansion or a tech fund) and in return they receive not just residency but a structured return on investment.

Such offerings differentiate BCP and directly tie into the opportunities created by the evolving trade environment.

The table below summarizes some of the emerging opportunities for Baltic Capital Partners and their clients in light of the trade war and Lithuania’s positioning:

Emerging Opportunit	Benefit to Lithuania’s Economy	How BCP & Clients Can Capitalize
Supply Chain Relocation to EU	New factories and jobs as manufacturers move production to Lithuania. Example: electronics and auto parts companies setting up	Attract entrepreneurial clients to establish operations in LT via fast-track residency. BCP can facilitate site selection in FEZs and connections with local authorities. Clients (as business owners) benefit by producing tariff-free within the EU, and gain
EU Internal Investment Boom	Large-scale projects in transport, energy, and defense inject capital into Lithuania. Local firms gain contracts;	residency for easier oversight of their EU ventures. Position the program to investor clients: e.g. co-invest in infrastructure projects (rail, renewable energy) in exchange for residency. BCP can broker introductions to project developers or public-private partnerships.
Diversification of Export Markets	Lithuanian exporters broaden their reach to Asia, Middle East, Africa, lessening reliance on any single market. This stabilizes export	Clients benefit from stable, often government-backed Guide investor-entrepreneurs in trading or manufacturing to use Lithuania as a base for accessing these new markets. BCP can assist in setting up trading houses or joint ventures. Clients with residency can easily travel for business development
Growth of Fintech and IT Hub (Services Shift)	An influx of fintech, IT, and BPO operations creates high-skilled jobs and solidifies Lithuania’s reputation as a Northern Europe tech hub.	Market Lithuania’s tech-friendly environment to tech entrepreneurs and digital nomads. BCP can streamline residency for teams or founders relocating, and highlight success stories (e.g. Revolut) lrt.lt. Clients gain a cost-efficient base to serve the EU,
UK Entrepreneurs Post-Brexit(EU Re-entry)	More businesses and talent from the UK set up in Lithuania to regain EU market access, bringing investment and jobs.	Target British investors/entrepreneurs: offer a package to secure Lithuanian residency (hence EU access) quickly. BCP can underscore that through Lithuania, UK businesses can operate in the EU single market seamlessly. For the clients, this means they can
Real Estate and Lifestyle Investments	Increased demand for property and services (from incoming residents and investors) stimulates the realestate sector and related	Encourage retirees and investors to purchase property or invest in real estate development as part of their residency process. BCP can assist in identifying prime real estate (historic villas, city apartments, etc.). Clients secure a tangible asset (housing for themselves

As illustrated, Baltic Capital Partners stands at the intersection of these opportunities – bridging global investors with local growth avenues. By fine-tuning its Gateway to Europe program messaging to these specific scenarios (e.g. “Manufacture in EU, secure residency” or “Invest in EU infrastructure, gain residency rights”), BCP can ride the wave of changes instead of reacting to them.

Opportunities for Baltic Capital Partners and Their Clients

These global shifts provide substantial benefits to clients of Baltic Capital Partners’ “Gateway to Europe” program:

Client Type	Key Benefits of EU Residency via Lithuania
Entrepreneurs	Access to the tariff-free EU market, opportunities in manufacturing, fintech, and innovation hubs.
Investors	Diversified investment opportunities, especially infrastructure and real estate.
Retirees	Attractive cost of living, high-quality healthcare, safe and stable environment, favorable tax regime.
Digital Nomads	Excellent digital infrastructure, EU-wide freedom of movement, vibrant business community.

The Outlook?

Trump’s revived tariff war with China and Europe is undeniably a challenge for Lithuania – as for all open economies, there will be headwinds in exports, adjustments in supply chains, and cautious GDP forecasts in the months ahead.

In the next 3 to 6 months, Lithuania faces slower growth and intense competition as global producers redirect goods into Europe lrt.lt. Yet, through prudent fiscal management and EU solidarity, it is weathering the storm with minimal damage so far (a GDP hit of about 0.5% is significant but manageable lrt.lt). Looking 12 to 24 months out, Lithuania’s outlook transforms from one of risk to one of real opportunity. The country is leveraging EU-wide stimulus measures – such as increased defense and infrastructure spending that could add back 0.5% to GDP lrt.lt – and is carving a role as a flexible, reliable partner in reconfigured global supply chains.

Crucially, the trade war is accelerating trends that play to Lithuania’s strengths: the push for diversified supply lines, the rise of the digital economy, and the value of a united Europe. Lithuania, agile and innovative, is already adapting – from factories in Kaunas making components for Western Europe, to startups in Vilnius attracting international capital. Its message to the world is that it’s open for business even as others raise walls. The next two years could thus see Lithuania not just recovering lost ground but moving ahead of the pack in certain sectors, as companies seek out the competitive advantages it offers.

For high net worth individuals and global investors, these developments make Lithuania and the Baltics more attractive than ever.

The Gateway to Europe residency program, in particular, emerges as a timely conduit for those who want to be part of the EU growth story and secure a safe harbor amid geopolitical storms. By obtaining EU residency through Lithuania, investors can tap into a country on the ascent, one that offers both stability and upside. They can contribute to – and benefit from – key sectors where Lithuania is gaining from trade re-routing, whether it’s manufacturing, logistics, technology, or infrastructure.

While a global tariff war poses short-term challenges for Lithuania’s small economy through slower export growth and potential inflationary pressures, the nation’s medium- to long-term prospects remain positive.

Lithuania’s integration in the EU provides a buffer and a platform: EU membership brings in support and new opportunities (as seen by shifts in trade and investment patterns favoring the block   abnamro.com).

Local businesses are set to exploit supply chain gaps and emerging markets, and foreign investors are increasingly viewing Lithuania as a strategic gateway – not just to Europe, but to future growth areas shaped by a changing globalization.

Baltic Capital Partners, with its focus on fast-tracking EU residency, finds itself in a unique position to align its services with these macro trends.

By guiding clients to opportunities that have arisen from the tariff tumult (and backing it with on-ground insights and partnerships), BCP can enhance the value it delivers – transforming the simple promise of a residency permit into a broader proposition of “Your platform for European prosperity.”

The coming 3, 6, 12, and 24 months will test many economies, but with foresight and agility, Lithuania and its partners are poised not just to endure, but to prosper in this new era of global trade.

Sources:

1. Janulevičius, V. (2025). LRT News – US tariffs to hit Lithuania: ‘It will be tough’. – Economists warn 20% US tariffs on EU goods could slow Lithuania’s GDP growth by ~0.5%, as cheaper imports flood Europe and local producers face pressure lrt.lt lrt.lt.

2. Mačiulis, N. (2025). LRT News – Analysis of Trump’s tariffs. – Notes that Lithuania’s exports to US (~2.5% of GDP) are partly exempt (energy, pharma), but indirect supply-chain effects (e.g. auto parts) could cut GDP by up to 0.5%. EU defense/infrastructure stimulus could add a similar +0.5%, offsetting the damage lrt.lt lrt.lt.

3. Dubnikovas, M. (2025). LRT News – Commentary on “economic war.” – Describes Trump’s move as potentially the biggest economic war since the 1930s, likely to reduce trade volumes, jobs, and growth globally – a worst-case to avoid through policy reversal or negotiation lrt.lt lrt.lt.

4. LRT English. (2020). “Trade war looms: Lithuania braces for impact of US tariffs.” – Reports Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on European autos; experts say a trade war would hurt both sides and significantly slow Lithuania’s growth. German firms were already cutting orders to Lithuanian suppliers as Germany’s economy stalled amid uncertainty lrt.lt lrt.lt.

5. Bruegel – García-Herrero, A. (2018). “How could Europe benefit from the US-China trade war?” – Observes that trade wars cause collateral damage but also create opportunities: e.g. EU agriculture might replace US in China, and EU consumer goods could gain ground in the US as Chinese goods face tariffs bruegel.org. It also notes China reaching out to the EU for closer trade ties under U.S. pressure bruegel.org.

6. IMF – Georgieva, K. (2025). Statement reported by The Guardian. – Warns that sweeping new tariffs by the US pose a “significant risk” to the global economy and urges resolution of trade tensions theguardian.com..

7. ABN AMRO Economists (2025). “US-triggered trade war and EU impact” – Finds that a US-led trade war would cut global growth and likely lower inflation in the EU, potentially prompting ECB rate cuts abnamro.com. It highlights that absent EU-China tariffs, Europe might actually benefit from cheaper green tech imports and lower financing costs abnamro.com abnamro.com.

8. CE Interim (2023). “China Plus One Strategy – CEE advantage.” – Explains that Central/Eastern Europe offers proximity and cost benefits for manufacturers: intra-Europe shipping is 1–3 days vs 30+ days from China, and shipping costs can be roughly half. Labor in CEE is 40–60% cheaper than Western Europe ceinterim.com ceinterim.com, all while maintaining political stability and EU regulatory alignment.

9. Baltic Capital Partners – Program Info. “Your Gateway to Europe”. – Describes the fast-track EU residency program in Lithuania, targeting qualified applicants (investors, skilled individuals) from around the world balticcapitalpartners.com. Emphasizes quick processing (under 4 weeks) and highlights benefits such as tax advantages (e.g. potential tax savings for Australians moving residency to LT) balticcapitalpartners.com balticcapitalpartners.com and double taxation treaties facilitating income planning balticcapitalpartners.com.

10. Reuters – IMF World Economic Outlook (2019). – Not explicitly cited above but background: Estimated US-China trade tensions could reduce global GDP by 0.8% by 2020 imf.org, contextualizing the scale of impact small countries might face indirectly.